US real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 0.5% in the first quarter, the slowest rate since the first quarter of 2014, according to an “advance” estimate issued today by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Real GDP increased 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Slow growth last quarter was driven by weaker consumption, a decline in business investment for the second consecutive quarter, a widening trade deficit due to still-sluggish exports, and a large runoff of bloated inventory build from last year, according to The Conference Board.

“Still, these results understate the overall health of the economy,” said Brian Schaitkin, senior economist at The Conference Board. “The labor market remains strong with unemployment remaining low and more workers returning to the labor force. Since the end of the Great Recession, even on a seasonally adjusted basis, first quarter GDP growth figures have shown a consistent pattern of being weaker than those for the rest of the year, which suggests that a small rise is in store in 2016. Most probably, employment and income growth will be offset by a still slow global economy and weak investment conditions as profit margins face further pressure, leading to a modest rebound of about 2%-plus trend growth.”

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP expanding at a 0.7% annual rate in the first three months of the year.

“The first quarter is going to be the worst quarter for consumption for all of 2016,” Jacob Oubina, a senior US economist at RBC Capital Markets LLC in New York, told Bloomberg. “With financial markets calming down and retracing all of their losses, the fundamental factors that have driven consumption will continue to do so.”

Growth in the staffing industry is strongly correlated with GDP growth, according to research from Staffing Industry Analysts.