The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence rose in the second-quarter report, with US CEOs no longer anticipating a recession in the coming year and instead being cautiously optimistic following two years of gloom.

The measure rose to a reading of 54 this quarter from 53 in the first-quarter report, marking the second consecutive quarter with a reading above 50, indicating more positive than negative responses.

“CEOs’ views about the economy have shifted from six months ago,” Roger Ferguson Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council and trustee of The Conference Board, said in a press release.

Ferguson noted that recession fears have faded considerably, with only 35% of CEOs surveyed in April anticipating a recession within the next 12 to 18 months, down from 72% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Meanwhile, labor shortages remain a concern, though Peterson noted fewer CEOs expect to have difficulty finding qualified workers.

“Persistent concerns about labor shortages are still prompting many CEOs to anticipate the need to retain workers,” Dana Peterson, chief economist of The Conference Board, said in a press release. “This labor hoarding comes at the cost of higher input costs, as most firms anticipate raising wages by more than 3% over the next twelve months. CEOs continue to indicate no revisions to their capital spending plans, suggesting that what was set in motion months ago is still on course.” Further, 33% of CEOs expect to expand their workforce over the next 12 months, down from 35% in the first quarter. Conversely, 21% expect a reduction in their workforce, down from 23%.

Among other findings:

• 30% of CEOs described economic conditions as better than six months ago, down from 32% in the first quarter; 16% said economic conditions were worse compared to six months ago, down from 22% in the first quarter.
• CEOs’ assessment of conditions in their own industries remained relatively stable compared to the first quarter, with 30% saying conditions in their industries were better compared to six months ago, down from 31% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, 26% said conditions in their own industries were worse, up from 25% in the first quarter survey. Seventy-five percent of CEOs expect to increase wages by 3% or more over the next year, up from 72% in the first quarter.
• 31% of CEOs report problems attracting qualified workers, but only in key areas. However, only 12% report serious and/or widespread problems attracting qualified workers, down from 15% in the first quarter.
• Among risks impacting their industries, CEOs ranked cyber as their top concern, followed by geopolitical instability and legal and regulatory uncertainty.

“CEOs remain cautious for the year ahead,” Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a press release.

The survey included 136 CEOs and took place between April 15 and April 29.