The Conference Board Employment Trends Index rose in March to a reading of 112.84, up from a downwardly revised 111.85 in February. The organization projects employment will continue to grow this quarter.

“The Employment Trends Index increased slightly in March, signaling employment will continue to grow in Q2 of 2024,” Will Baltrus, associate economist at The Conference Board, said in a press statement. “Although the ETI has been on a downward trajectory since its peak in March 2022, this trend has decelerated since August 2023, with monthly oscillations between modest increases and modest decreases. However, the index remains above its prepandemic level and is still consistent with continued employment growth.”

Baltrus noted that, for the moment, employment will likely continue to grow or at worst, flatten.

“Most US CEOs said they are expecting to grow or maintain their existing workforce, while only 21% expect to lay off employees in 2024,” Baltrus said. “And while two-thirds of March’s payroll additions were in the three sectors seeing acute labor shortages (healthcare and social assistance, leisure and hospitality and government), job gains broadened for the fourth straight month, with increases in construction, other services and retail trade. These continued payroll gains outside of the major labor shortage-threatened industries point towards a resilient overall labor market.”

In addition, the number of temporary employees — a component of Employment Trends Index and a strong leading indicator for employment — was little changed in March, according to The Conference Board, suggesting few-to-no layoffs in the near term while demand for labor remains strong.

March’s increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from five of its eight components: percentage of respondents who say they find “jobs hard to get”, ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers, industrial production, real manufacturing and trade sales and job openings.

Meanwhile, The Conference Board continues to project slower real GDP growth this quarter and in the third quarter, which may spill over into decreases in hiring.