Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics are more upbeat about economic growth in this quarter, though they are less so on employment growth.

The first-quarter real gross domestic product is forecast to increase 3.4% at an annualized rate, according to the median response in the NABE Outlook Survey. That’s above an earlier forecast for the first quarter of 2.9% growth made in the group’s December report.

In addition, the forecast has been upped for the full year.

“The panel has become more bullish about 2021 as a whole,” said NABE President Manuel Balmaseda, who is also chief economist at Cemex. “The median real GDP growth estimate for 2021 is 4.8%, compared to the 3.8% forecasted in the December 2020 survey.”

On the flip side, NABE panelists’ views are not as upbeat on employment growth. The survey found 59% of respondents don’t believe nonfarm payrolls will return to pre-Covid levels until 2023 or later. Another 27% believe employment will return to pre-Covid levels by the second half of 2022 and 10% believe they will return in the first half of 2022.

The report presents consensus macroeconomic forecast from a panel of 53 professional forecasters; the survey took place from Feb. 8 to Feb. 16.