The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence dipped this quarter, as CEOs’ views of current economic conditions were less enthusiastic than in the third quarter.

The measure fell to a reading of 46, down from 48 in the third quarter of the year. It remained below a reading of 50, which indicates that CEOs maintain a cautious outlook regarding the economy. 

“A large majority of CEOs continue to expect a US recession ahead — but that consensus receded notably over the course of 2023,” Roger Ferguson Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council and trustee of The Conference Board, said in a press statement.

“In Q4, 72% of CEOs reported that they are preparing for a US recession over the next 12-18 months, compared to 93% at the start of the year,” Ferguson said. “Of those, 69% expect a brief and shallow recession, with limited global spillovers, and only 3% are preparing for a deep US recession. The share of CEOs who are not preparing for any recession in the next 12 to 18 months rose to 28% in Q4, up from just 6% in Q1 2023.”

Among the findings:

• The fourth-quarter survey found 18% of CEOs said economic conditions were better compared to six months ago, down from 28% in the third-quarter survey.
• 27% of CEOs said conditions in their industries were better compared to six months ago, down from 29%. And 37% said conditions in their own industries were worse, up from 35% in Q3.
• Only 19% of CEOs expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 20% in Q3, while 47% expect conditions to worsen, up from 39%.
• 38% of CEOs expect to expand their workforce over the next 12 months, down from 40% in the third quarter. However, 47% of CEOs report problems attracting qualified workers, down from 56%.
• 71% of CEOs expect to increase wages by 3% or more over the next year, down from 74% in Q3.

The survey included 136 CEOs and was conducted between Sept. 18 and Oct. 2.