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Economists’ survey upbeat on US, but finds wage pressure and skilled worker shortages

April 23, 2018

The outlook for the US economy is positive, but there is widespread wage growth and increasing shortages of skilled workers, according to the “April 2018 NABE Business Conditions Survey.” However, the survey found a majority of its respondents did not change their hiring or investment plans based on the recent federal tax cuts.

The survey included 107 members of the National Association for Business Economics, an organization of business economists and others who use economics in the workplace.

NABE Business Conditions Survey Chair Sara Rutledge, an independent real estate economist, said the survey shows continued increases in sales and healthy profit margins, but suggests profit margins slowed in the first quarter thanks to material costs and wage increases.

“The panel’s outlook for growth in the overall economy remains overwhelmingly positive, and more upbeat than a year ago, while labor market conditions are increasingly tight,” Rutledge said. “When questioned about the impact of recent policy changes, about two-thirds [65%] of panelists indicate their firms are not adjusting hiring and investment plans after the passage of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the introduction of steel and aluminum tariffs.

April’s survey results found that job growth was widespread at respondents’ firm in the first quarter with additional increases over the next three months.

In addition, 45% of respondents reported skills shortages rose at their firms — it was the highest percentage since the July 2008 survey.