Consumers became more concerned about losing their job in March, according to a report released April 8 by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data.

The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased to 15.7% in March from 14.5% in the previous month. This is above pre-pandemic levels and the highest reading since September 2020.

However, the  March 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations report also noted the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also rose, increasing to 20.6% from 19.5% in the previous month.

In addition, the mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) fell for the third consecutive month in March to 51.2% from 52.5% in February. This was the lowest reading in almost three years and below its February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 58.7%.

Other employment findings:

• Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8% for the second consecutive month, matching the series’ 12-month trailing average.
• Mean unemployment expectations — or the mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now — remained essentially unchanged at 36.2%, below the series 12-month trailing average of 38.6%.

The report also asked consumers about other topics, including inflation.

Consumers’ median inflation expectations for the short-term, one-year-ahead horizon were 3.0% for the third consecutive month in March.

However, the median three-year ahead median inflation expectation rose to 2.9% in March from 2.7% in the previous month’s survey. In the longer-term horizon, the median five-year ahead median inflation expectation fell to 2.6% from 2.9%.

The survey is based on a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads.