Only four Canadian provinces are expected to see their economy grow by more than 2% this year — British Columbia, Ontario, Manitoba, and Nova Scotia — according to The Conference Board of Canada’s Provincial Outlook: Winter 2016.

The slump in oil prices will continue to weigh on the economies of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Forecasts by province:

British Columbia: Following up on its solid performance of the last two years, British Columbia’s economy is expected to grow by 2.7%, outpacing all other provinces in 2016.

“British Columbia posted the strongest economic growth last year and, thanks to widespread gains, is expected to lead the provincial growth rankings over the next two years,” said Marie-Christine Bernard, associate director, Provincial Forecast.

Ontario: Real GDP is expected to rise 2.4% in 2016.

“Ontario’s economy grew at an average pace of close to 2.5% over the last two years, and the outlook remains positive over the next two,” Bernard said. “The lower Canadian dollar and stronger growth in US consumer demand will help boost the province’s exports.” 

Manitoba: Manitoba will be one of the top-performing provinces in the country in 2016, with GDP growth forecast to accelerate from 1.5% last year to 2.3 % in 2016. Agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and the services sectors will drive the growth.

Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan’s economy is expected to recover from last year’s oil-driven recession, but growth will be very weak in 2016. Following a contraction of 2.8% in 2015, Saskatchewan is expected to grow 0.7% in 2016.

Atlantic Canada: With real GDP expected to rise by 2.1%, Nova Scotia will lead the Atlantic region in growth. Newfoundland and Labrador will see no growth this year as the slump in commodity prices continues to weigh on the economy.

“Faced with large fiscal deficits and an aging population, the East Coast provinces have struggled the last few years, and these structural factors will continue to weigh on their economies over the near term,” Bernard said. “The one exception will be Nova Scotia, which will be one of four provinces in Canada to generate economic growth of more than 2% this year.”

Expected GDP growth in 2016:

• Nova Scotia: 2.1%
• New Brunswick: 0.8%
• Prince Edward Island: 1.7%
• Newfoundland and Labrador: No growth

Quebec: Quebec’s economic growth is expected to improve as federal government stimulus and stronger exports help lift economic growth to 1.7% this year.

Alberta: On the heels of an estimated 2.9% contraction last year, Alberta’s economy is expected to shrink by a further 1.1% in 2016.

“With oil prices continuing to feel the pressure of bloated global inventories and rising supply, the outlook is grim for the energy sector and Alberta’s economy as a whole,” Bernard said. “The number of rigs drilling in January was extremely low and oil producers are planning another round of cuts to capital budgets. The impact on jobs, housing markets, consumer spending, and supplier industries will result in continued recession for Alberta this year.”