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Alberta to be Canada’s fastest-growing economy, report says

February 24, 2017

Alberta is poised to have the strongest economic growth in 2017 mainly due to fast-rising oil production, according to The Conference Board of Canada's Provincial Outlook: Winter 2017. Last year’s leaders, British Columbia and Ontario, will see their economic growth lose some momentum in 2017 but will still deliver moderate expansion.

“Following two tough years stemming from widespread weakness in the energy sector, Alberta’s economy finds itself with the strongest economic growth this year,” said Marie-Christine Bernard, associate director, provincial forecast. “Along with a big increase in oil production, some of the growth in Alberta will come from the rebuilding efforts in Fort McMurray. However, we expect more subdued economic growth next year as oil prices are not expected to increase very much.”

All provinces are expected to see positive economic growth this year, with the exception of Newfoundland and Labrador. Forecasts by province:

Alberta: Alberta's real GDP is forecast to grow by 2.8% this year, the fastest among the provinces, with 0.4 percentage point coming from the rebuilding efforts in Fort McMurray.

Ontario: Ontario’s economy remains in a good position, although real GDP growth is expected to ease to 2.0% in 2017.

Quebec: The Quebec economy exceeded expectations in 2016 and will continue to perform well with real GDP growth forecast to average 1.9% for 2017-18.

British Columbia: Taking a hit from the housing market slowdown, British Columbia's economy will slow from the above 3% average pace of the last three years to 1.9% in 2017.

Manitoba: Manitoba’s economy will advance 1.9% this year and grow by a similar pace in 2018. Declines in metal mining output of more than 10% are forecast over the next three years but Manitoba's manufacturing, transportation and insurance sectors are sound, insulating the province from any large fluctuations in GDP.

Saskatchewan: Following two years of recession, Saskatchewan’s economy will be back in the black this year, with real GDP growth forecast at 0.9%. A net gain of 1,804 jobs will be created this year, but it will not be enough to prop up disposable income.

Prince Edward Island: The economic outlook for Prince Edward Island is the best among the Atlantic provinces, with GDP growth of 2.2% expected in 2017. Underpinning the sound economic growth is the province’s manufacturing sector.

Nova Scotia: The end of development for some big construction projects and an aging population will weigh on Nova Scotia’s economy, with only modest real GDP growth of 0.8% forecast for 2017. While job creation in the province is expected to improve over the near term, employment growth will be subdued as the aging population constrains labor supply and the potential of the economy.

New Brunswick: New Brunswick’s economy is forecast to perform better; but, real GDP growth will be limited to 1.2% on average this year and next. Similar to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick’s aging population will weigh down labor force and economic prospects going forward.

Newfoundland and Labrador: The Newfoundland and Labrador economy will have to contend with the adverse effects of major investment projects unwinding, fiscally restrictive measures that will hamper household spending and soft commodity prices. The collapse in provincial investment, totaling a 57% decline in 2017 for business non-residential investment, will have ripple effects in labor markets as construction activity declines. The unemployment rate is projected to surge to 15.5% this year. Overall, the Newfoundland and Labrador economy is expected to contract by 1.8% in 2017. However, oil production at the Hebron offshore oil project will ramp up toward the end of the year and is expected to contribute to a temporary spike in economic growth in 2018.