New Zealand's labour force is projected to increase, driven by a growing population and increasing participation rates of women at most ages and men at older ages, according to Statistics New Zealand research.

In the March 2021 quarter, 2.9 million people were in the labour force. The new projections indicate a total labour force of around 3.2 million in the early 2030s and 3.7 million in the early 2070s under the median projection.

"However, slower population growth and our ageing population will slow labour force growth in the long term," population estimates and projections manager Hamish Slack said.

The projections assume the age of eligibility for New Zealand retirement remains at 65 years. Changes to the age of eligibility can affect labour force participation rates, as it did when the age was gradually raised from 60 to 65 years during the 1990s.

These projections indicate that more people aged 65 years and over (65+) will be in the labour force. Currently 1 in 4 people aged 65+ are in the labour force. In 2003 it was 1 in 10, and in 1990 it was 1 in 15.

Statistics New Zealand found that these people are not necessarily working full time, to be in the labour force someone only needs to regularly work one hour a week.

These projections also indicate that people aged 65+ will make up an increasing share of the labour force. In 1991, 1% of the labour force was aged 65+. Currently the 65+ share is 6%; this is projected to increase to 9% in the 2030s and 11% in the 2060s under the median projection.

Meanwhile, an estimated 1.5 million men and 1.4 million women are in the labour force currently, according to the research. It is assumed that both the participation rates and average hours worked by women in the labour force will increase, particularly for those aged in their mid-20s to early 70s. For men, some increase in participation rates is assumed, particularly at ages 60–74 years. These assumptions reflect the trends of the last two decades.