The global unemployment rate is set to rise from 5.1% in 2023 to 5.2% in 2024, according to a report from the International Labour Organisation.

The report finds that both the unemployment rate and the jobs gap rate, which is the number of persons without employment who are interested in finding a job, have fallen below pre-pandemic levels. The 2023 global unemployment rate stood at 5.1%, a modest improvement from 2022 when it stood at 5.3%. The global jobs gap and labour market participation rates also improved in 2023.

The report projects that the labour market outlook and global unemployment will both worsen. In 2024 an extra two million workers are expected to be looking for jobs.

Disposable incomes have declined in the majority of G20 countries and, generally, the erosion of living standards resulting from inflation is, “unlikely to be compensated quickly”, the report stated.

Furthermore, differences persist between higher and lower income countries. While the jobs gap rate in 2023 was 8.2% in high-income countries, it stood at 20.5% in the low-income group. Similarly, while the 2023 unemployment rate persisted at 4.5% in high-income countries, it was 5.7% in low-income countries. Moreover, working poverty is likely to persist.

Rates of informal work are expected to remain static, accounting for around 58% of the global workforce in 2024.

The report also finds that despite technological advances and increased investment, productivity growth has continued to slow. One reason for this is that significant amounts of investment were directed towards less productive sectors such as services and construction. Other barriers include skills shortages and the dominance of large digital monopolies, which hinders faster technological adoption, especially in developing countries and sectors with a predominance of low productivity firms.

ILO Director-General, Gilbert F. Houngbo said, “This report looks behind the headline labour market figures and what it reveals must give great cause for concern. It is starting to look as if these imbalances are not simply part of pandemic recovery but structural.”

“The workforce challenges it detects pose a threat to both individual livelihoods and businesses and it is essential that we tackle them effectively and fast,” Houngbo said. “Falling living standards and weak productivity combined with persistent inflation create the conditions for greater inequality and undermine efforts to achieve social justice. And without greater social justice we will never have a sustainable recovery.”