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China's new youth-jobless rate met with scepticism (WSJ)

22 January 2024

China has published a revised, lower youth-unemployment rate after having stopped publishing data in June when it stood at 21.3%, reports the Wall Street Journal. Chinese officials said they adjusted the way they calculate the rate to arrive at a more accurate figure, but economists are sceptical it will do much to dispel the gloom hanging over the economy. And some say they are still scratching their heads over how China came up with the new figure. China released a youth unemployment rate of 14.9% for December, a drop from a 21.3% June rate that spawned headlines about record-high youth unemployment as the economy struggled to regain its footing last year. Chinese officials suggested they arrived at the number by changing the way they incorporate students in their calculations.

Economists said a revised youth-jobless rate for one month likely wouldn't sufficiently reassure the public about improved job-market conditions or erase longstanding doubts about the accuracy of the country's official statistics. "Adjusting how they calculate the figures at this moment may even exacerbate the public's distrust in official data," said Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. The release of the new figure comes as Chinese leaders have sought to rally the nation in recent weeks to view the economy more positively.

“Calculating the unemployment rate by age group that does not include school students will more accurately reflect the employment and unemployment situation of young people entering society,” the statistics bureau said in a statement to AP News, adding that students should focus on their studies instead of finding jobs.

China's National Bureau of Statistics said the calculation of the youth unemployment rate now excludes nearly 62 million students between 16 and 24 years old studying full-time on campuses. This, the bureau said, is in an effort to focus on those with "actual demand for jobs," such as those who have finished school or those who are studying part-time. The Bureau didn't provide full details of its new methodology or how it compares with the old one.

Statistical standards on how to measure joblessness and other labour-market indicators are set by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), a United Nations agency based in Geneva. A spokeswoman for the agency said that excluding students from the measure of unemployment isn't in line with ILO standards, though she added the ILO doesn't have enough information to make a complete evaluation of how the changes affect China's labour-market data.