Australia faces a shortfall of more than 200,000 full-time care workers by 2050 as demand doubles within a generation, with a predicted gap in the workforce emerging earlier than expected as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, reports The Guardian.  This article refers to a study overseen by the national skills commissioner, Adam Boyton, which the Morrison government had commissioned but then refused to release after it was completed in September 2021. The study, released by the minister for skills, Brendan O’Connor, forecasts a shortfall of about 100,000 care workers across the aged, disability and mental health care sectors by 2027-28, blowing out to 212,000 by 2050.

The workforce required to meet demand over this period is expected to grow to about 531,600, significantly outpacing the forecasted supply of 320,200 full-time workers. The gap of approximately 211,400 full-time positions is even larger on a headcount basis, with the country on track to be 285,800 workers short by 2050. The shortages will be most severe in the aged and disabled care sectors, as well as nursing support and personal care workers, but there will also be a shortage of registered nurses, health and welfare services managers and nurse managers.

An update released by Boyton in August said that in the 12 months since the report was finalised the situation had deteriorated, with a strong labour market increasing the turnover of staff due to the Omicron variant leading to absenteeism in the sector.