The US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Sept. 4 released updated employment projections for 2018 to 2028. Overall US employment is projected to grow by 5.2%, or 8.4 million jobs. The healthcare and social assistance sector is expected to make up 40%, or 3.4 million, of the overall increase in employment. The annual 1.6% growth rate is anticipated to be driven mainly by increased demand in healthcare services from an aging population and patients with chronic health conditions.

Six of the 10 fastest-growing occupations from 2018 to 2028 are expected to be healthcare and social assistance related. Within the healthcare sector, home health aide employment is expected to grow the fastest (37%), followed by personal care aides (36%), occupational therapy assistants (33%), physician assistants (31%), nurse practitioners (28%) and speech language pathologists (27%). Registered nurse employment is expected to grow 12% to 3.4 million. Physical therapist employment is expected to increase 22% to 301,900 and physicians and surgeon employment is expected to grow 7% to 812,200.

In September 2019, the overall US unemployment rate was 3.5%, the lowest in a decade. For the third quarter of 2019, the unemployment rate was lower for healthcare practitioners and technical occupations at 1.3% and healthcare support occupations at 3.3%. The unemployment rate was also very low for physicians at 0.4%, registered nurses at 1.1% and physical therapists at 1.0%.

According to the BLS’ projections, employment mix by facility setting will continue to shift away from acute care hospitals towards non-acute care settings. Although hospital employment is expected to grow 6% from 2018 to 2028, the overall mix of healthcare employment is projected to decline from 37% to 34% for hospitals during the timeframe. Additionally, the mix of healthcare employment in other ambulatory healthcare settings is expected to increase from 19% to 20%, and increase in the home health setting from 9% to 11% during that period.

SIA published its updated US Staffing Industry Forecast on Sept. 17. The healthcare staffing market is projected to grow 4% to $18.1 billion in 2020, driven by continued growth in national health expenditures forecasted by the CMS Office of the Actuary and continued cyclical expansion in the US economy.