The majority of employees across the UK remained confident in their job security for the next six months amid skills shortages, according to the latest Robert Half Jobs Confidence Index (JCI), an economic confidence tracker produced in partnership with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr).

Of the JCI’s four pillars, the strongest Q4 2023 reading was seen in job security confidence. This trend has persisted for nine consecutive quarters, while the pillar also experienced the sharpest improvement on last quarter.

The research showed that 56.1% of employees were confident in their job security at a time of technical recession. This pushed the job security pillar of the JCI to its second highest level on record (138.4), as unemployment stood at 3.8%, a low rate by historical standards, indicating the labour market continues to remain tight. The trend is being driven by continued skills shortages and vacancies which remain elevated above pre-pandemic levels.

The Jobs Confidence Index (JCI) rose to 46.5 in Q4 2023, up by 4.0 points from the previous quarter’s reading of 42.5.

Meanwhile, with real earnings growing for the third consecutive quarter following a continued deceleration in headline inflation, the pay confidence pillar of the JCI noted increases at the end of last year, climbing 8.3 points to 36.8, a confidence reading which will fuel further worker wage demands. 

The macroeconomic confidence pillar also ticked up slightly, rising by 5.2 points to 6.0. This is indicative that despite entering a technical recession, consumers and businesses are optimistic that the UK economy is on the path to recovery.

The job search and progression confidence pillar was the only pillar to worsen in Q4 2023, to stand at 4.9 (from 34.7). Overall, 40.3% of survey respondents for the latest wave of the JCI said that they feel confident or very confident about their future career prospects and ability to progress in their career over the coming five years, down from 47.4% last quarter.

Further survey data by Robert Half and Cebr showed that approximately one in five (17.5%) of employees expect to re-train and move to an AI-related role or field in the next three to five years. Meanwhile 34.4% of employees are concerned that AI will disrupt their careers within the next two years. This rises to 44.6% over the next six to ten years.

“The UK economy entered a technical recession in the second half of 2023. Though this is unwelcome news, it should be noted that the recession is a mild one,” the research stated. “Moreover, Cebr expects the UK economy to return to expansion in Q1 2024.”

“Looking ahead, Cebr expects the economy to grow by 1.1% in 2024 on an annual basis,” the report stated. “Though this is a moderately weak growth figure compared to historical standards, it does represent an acceleration relative to 2023.”

The Jobs Confidence Index is made up of four equally weighted pillars, each measuring a factor which contributes to jobs confidence. These are: job security confidence; pay confidence; job search and progression confidence; and macroeconomic confidence.