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UK – Unemployment rate remains steady following Brexit, wage growth slows

14 September 2016

The unemployment rate in the UK remained at 4.9% in the period ending in July, the same as the previous period and down from 5.5% from the same time last year. This period covers the first full month following the EU Referendum, according to data from the Office of National Statistics.

The data showed that the last time the unemployment rate was lower was for the period from July to September 2005. There were 1.63 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 39,000 fewer than the previous period of February to April 2016, 190,000 fewer than for a year earlier and the lowest since March to May 2008.

Meanwhile, the employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.5%, the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

However, wage growth in the UK as earnings, excluding bonuses rose by 2.1% year-on-year against 2.3% growth the previous period and with bonuses was at 2.3% against 2.5% the previous period.

Commenting on today’s publication of labour market statistics, Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC) Chief Executive Kevin Green said:

“The labour market continues to perform well. Whilst today’s ONS data only covers one month since the referendum result, it does support the idea that employers avoided any knee-jerk reactions immediately after the vote.  

“It is encouraging to see that of the 559,000 jobs created in the last year, 434,000 are full-time positions,” Green said. “This is good news, however problems that hindered the jobs market before the referendum remain, with businesses in a range of sectors experiencing major skills shortages.

“Pay continues to grow at 2.3%, but with inflation expected to rise over the coming months this weakening growth rate is an area of concern. 

“The economy has so far recovered well from the post-referendum shock, largely because of a business-as-usual attitude from consumers and employers, but confidence remains fragile,” Green said. “We hope to see fiscal stimulus from the Chancellor at the Autumn Statement to help bolster the jobs market, and we call for sensible decisions around any new immigration policy so that businesses can continue to access the people they need.”

Doug Monro, co-founder of Adzuna, also commented:

“The shock of Brexit hasn’t shaken the jobs market too much – for now,”  Monro said. “Employment sits at a record high, although these figures only take into account one month after the vote.

“For many industries it’s not been entirely smooth sailing,” Monro said. “Stronger repercussions are being felt in higher paying sectors that rely heavily on overseas staff. Caution is taking effect and fewer vacancies are on offer in areas like Legal and Finance. At the same time, employers are seeking more contract and temporary staff to plug gaps in their workforces without committing to expensive hires. Chancellor Philip Hammond’s recent comments signal that he will try to negotiate an exemption from immigration curbs for these sectors, which would help to restore some confidence. It could be just in time.”

“Graduates are also facing a tougher labour market – starting salaries are 4.3% lower than a year ago and there are fewer entry level roles on offer. Meanwhile inflation looks likely to rise over the next few months which will eat into real wages. Employers need a confidence boost to invest more. The Autumn Statement could be a timely opportunity for the Chancellor to reassure employers and give the job market a lift.”