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UK – Employers feel pessimistic about the economy, uncertainty impacts long-term hiring plans

28 March 2018

Confidence in the economy remains negative as more employers think that economic conditions will get worse, compared to those who think it will get better, according to the latest JobsOutlook survey from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation.

This outlook has led to uncertainty about hiring, especially long-term permanent hiring as 17% of employers plan to increase permanent staff in the next 4–12 months, down from 22% this time last year. As for the next 3 months, 89% of employers of permanent staff surveyed across the December to February period planned to either retain their permanent headcount (74%) or increase it (15%), while 9% are uncertain. Overall, the net balance of permanent hiring intentions remained positive in the short-term.

Meanwhile, more employers are starting to feel certain about their temporary hiring plans as 72% of employers are either planning to hold (56%) or increase (16%) their agency headcount over the next quarter, while 10% planned to decrease numbers. Meanwhile, 18% of employers were unsure for the short-term, down from 34%. For the next 4-12 months, 20% are unsure, down from 32%.

“Businesses are still pessimistic about the future of the economy,” REC director of policy Tom Hadley said. “However, the one-year countdown to Brexit starts tomorrow and it’s got to a point where they can’t put off making hiring plans any longer.”

“Employers are potentially turning to temps, which could bring opportunities to candidates interested in temporary work and the flexibility it affords, but is also a sign employers are affected by economic and political uncertainty,” Hadley said. “It’s less risky to bring people in to meet demand and keep them for a limited time, rather than spend the time hiring a new permanent member of staff when you don’t know what business will look like in the next year.”

“Improving the mood of employers rests in the hands of the government,” Hadley said. “The announcement that EU workers who arrive in the transition period can stay is a positive step, but businesses need to know what access they’ll have to EU workers after that time period so they can plan ahead effectively.”