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US raises GDP estimate for Q3, but consumer confidence slips

November 25, 2014

US real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the third quarter, according to the second estimate released today by the US Department of Commerce. The growth rate is up from a previous estimate of 3.5 percent. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.6 percent.

Bloomberg reported today’s GDP announcement exceeded the median forecast of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Growth in the staffing industry is strongly correlated with GDP growth, according to research from Staffing Industry Analysts.

Separately, The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for the US fell in November to a reading of 88.7 (1985=100) from 94.1 in October.

“Consumer confidence retreated in November, primarily due to reduced optimism in the short-term outlook,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers were somewhat less positive about current business conditions and the present state of the job market; moreover, their optimism in the short-term outlook in both areas has waned. However, income expectations were virtually unchanged and gas prices remain low, which should help boost holiday sales.”

The number of consumers anticipating more jobs in the months ahead fell to 15.0 percent in November from 16.0 percent October, according to the index’s survey. Those expecting fewer jobs rose to 16.4 percent from 14.1 percent. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” fell to 16.0 percent from 16.5 percent in the previous month’s survey; those claiming jobs are “hard to get” edged up to 29.2 percent from 29.0 percent in October.