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NABE reports US economic growth expectations soften

October 26, 2015

Slightly slower economic growth is seen for the US, according to a new survey by the National Association for Business Economics, also known as NABE.

The survey of 106 NABE members found four-fifths of respondents expect real GDP growth of more than 2% for the next year. However, the number expecting GDP growth above 3% was much lower with only 7% of respondents saying so. And that is down from 16% who said so in a similar survey in July.

“The panel continues to have a positive outlook, but third-quarter performance and fourth-quarter expectations softened across most indicators,” said Survey Chair Jim Diffley, senior director at IHS. “Since the July survey, respondents report slower increases in profits, prices, wages and salaries, capital spending, and employment. And expectations for increases in the coming quarter declined for sales, prices, material costs, wages and employment.”

The report also cited moderating employment conditions; 15% reported falling employment at their firms in the third quarter. The share of respondents reporting rising employment ticked downward to 34%, while 51% reported no employment changes for the quarter. Employment conditions were weakest among goods producers with 40% of respondents from this sector reporting declines.

While 61% of panelists expect employment at their firms to remain unchanged over the next three months, the share of respondents expecting it to rise over the same time period shrank to 29% — the lowest level since this question was introduced in July 2014. Additionally, 10% of respondents expect employment declines.

Fourth-quarter employment growth is expected to be concentrated in the finance, insurance, real estate (FIRE) and services sectors. Equal shares of respondents from the goods-producing and transportation, utility, information, communication (TUIC) sectors expect rising and falling employment in their respective sectors.

More than one-third of respondents, 36%, reported their firms experienced shortages of skilled labor, about in line with the July survey results, but an increase from the nearly one-quarter of firms in the previous three surveys.

Roughly half of respondents, 49%, said their firms had difficulty filling open positions over the last three months, a slight increase from 46% in the previous survey.

Expectations for wage increases over the next three months are at their lowest level since October 2014. The survey found 44% of respondents anticipate increases in wages and salaries.

NABE is a professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace.