The National Association for Business Economics’ Outlook Survey for June found its members expect the economy to grow at a slower pace than they did three months ago. They also predict a slowing — but still robust — pace of improvement in the labor market. 

“Their views on economic growth have been tempered by sluggish conditions during the first three months of the year that have persisted into the second quarter,” said NABE President John Silvia, chief economist of Wells Fargo. 

The panel of 48 professional forecasters’ median forecast for real GDP growth from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015 is 2.3%, down sharply from the forecast reported in the March survey. The median forecast for 2016 is unchanged at 2.9%.  

The forecast for the annualized growth rate for 2015 is also lower, down to 2.4% from 3.1% in March. The annualized forecast for 2016 is unchanged at 2.9%.  

Weakness in first-quarter GDP and lower expectations for the second quarter compared to those reported in the March Outlook Survey influenced the downward revisions, according to NABE. 

The median forecast for real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2015 fell to 2.5% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down from 3.0% in March. 

“Despite the disappointing start to 2015, the NABE panel foresees a number of positives in the economic picture,” said Silvia. “Consumer outlays, residential investment and government expenditures are all expected to increase at a faster pace in both 2015 and 2016 compared to last year. Payrolls are expected to expand by more than 200,000 per month through the end of next year, and inflation is expected to remain tame.” 

The median forecast for monthly nonfarm payroll growth in 2015 declined to 217,000 in June from 251,000 in March’s survey, while the median forecast for 2016 slipped to 207,000 from 216,000 in March. Payrolls expanded at a 260,000 monthly clip in 2014.  

The economists expect the unemployment rate to fall to 5.2% on average during the fourth quarter of 2015 and to 4.9% on average during the fourth quarter of 2016, similar to March’s outlook. 

NABE is a professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. The survey was conducted from May 8 to May 20, 2015.