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CEO estimate of GDP rises, hiring plans edge up

March 03, 2015

CEOs expect 2015 gross domestic product growth of 2.8%, up from last quarter’s estimate of 2.4%, according to the Business Roundtable’s first-quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey. Plans for capital expenditures, hiring and sales all increased relative to the previous quarter, with hiring plans increasing the least, according to the survey.

The survey found 40% of respondents expect their company’s US employment to increase in the next six months, unchanged from the fourth-quarter survey; 23% expect employment to decrease in the next six months and 38% expect no change (the percentages may not equal 100% due to rounding).

“The US economy and the job outlook are starting the year in a stronger position than 2014,” said Randall Stephenson, chairman of Business Roundtable and CEO of AT&T Inc. “Almost half of CEOs plan to increase capital spending in the next six months, which shows that passage of tax-extender legislation late last year gave some companies greater confidence to invest more in the United States.”

“But we need to give more businesses the confidence to increase investment to create more good-paying, middle-class jobs and boost US economic growth,” Stephenson said. “That would happen if Congress and the Administration pass Trade Promotion Authority, as well as act on business tax reform, infrastructure investment and smart regulation that encourage and accelerate business investment.”

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite index of CEO expectations for the next six months of sales, capital spending and employment — rebounded in the first quarter of 2015 to 90.8 from 85.1 in the fourth quarter of 2014. The long-term average of the index is 80.5.

The Business Roundtable is an association of CEOs. The first-quarter 2015 survey included 120 member CEOs and was completed between Jan. 26 and Feb. 13.