Vancouver will post the fastest-growing metropolitan economy this year and next among the 13 census metropolitan areas covered by The Conference Board of Canada’s Metropolitan Outlook: Autumn 2016. Toronto, Halifax, Winnipeg, and Victoria round out the top five spots, with all on track to post economic growth of at least 2.5%.

“Vancouver is on track to boast the fastest-growing metro area economy for the second straight year in 2016, as the region’s housing market remains one of the metro area’s key engines of growth,” said Alan Arcand, associate director, Centre for Municipal Studies, The Conference Board of Canada. “While Vancouver’s economy is forecast to slow next year, partly due to federal and provincial government measures directed at cooling the overheated housing market, the pace of growth still will be strong enough to maintain the metro area’s first place ranking.”

On the flip side, Calgary and Edmonton are suffering through another year of recession in 2016, but a modest recovery is in sight for both cities next year. Calgary’s economy is expected to contract by 2.1% in 2016, before rebounding by 2.0% in 2017; Edmonton’s economy is on track to post a 1.4% decline this year, followed by growth of 2.0% next year.

“Low oil prices continue to cause widespread economic pain across most cities in Alberta, including Calgary and Edmonton,” Arcand said. “However, we expect that 2016 will mark the end of this latest recession, as both metropolitan economies are expected to start recovering next year, in line with gradually rising crude oil prices.”

Expected GDP growth in 2016 and 2017: