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US will keep adding jobs for now, though growth rate may slow: The Conference Board

October 09, 2023

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index edged up in September, signaling continued job growth ahead.

“The index has been on a slow downward trend since it peaked in March 2022, but remains well above pre-pandemic levels,” Selcuk Eren, senior economist at The Conference Board, said in a press release. “This suggests the US economy will continue adding jobs through the remainder of 2023 and into next year, even if the rate of growth slows.”

Overall, the Employment Trends Index rose to a reading of 114.66 in September from 114.16 in August.

Eren pointed out the number of employees working in temporary help services — an important indicator for hiring in other industries — continues to fall after peaking in March 2022. However, several other components of the Employment Trends Index remain tight.

“Initial claims for unemployment insurance remain very low, as does the ratio of workers who work part-time because they can’t find full-time positions,” he said. “Likewise, the percentage of firms reporting difficulty filling their vacant positions ticked up in September.”

In a separate story today, a poll by the National Association for Business Economists also predicted the US would continue adding jobs through the end of 2024, though the number of jobs added next year would be less than initially projected.