The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index rose 0.5% in September from August to a reading of 111.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4% increase in August and a 0.7% increase in July.

“The US LEI improved further in September, suggesting the US business cycle remains on a strong growth trajectory heading into 2019,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director and global research chair at The Conference Board. “However, the LEI’s growth has slowed somewhat in recent months, suggesting the economy may be facing capacity constraints and increasingly tight labor markets.”

Ozyildirim continued, “economic growth could exceed 3.5% in the second half of 2018, but, unless the momentum in housing, orders and stock prices accelerates, that pace is unlikely to be sustained in 2019.”