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US leading index keeps on upward trend in May

June 22, 2017

The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index edged up 0.3% in May to a reading of 127.0 (2010 = 100), following increases of 0.2% in April and 0.4% in March.

“The US [Leading Economic Index] continued on its upward trend in May, suggesting the economy is likely to remain on, or perhaps even moderately above, its long-term trend of about 2% growth for the remainder of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “The improvement was widespread among the majority of the leading indicators except for housing permits, which declined again. And, the average workweek in manufacturing has recently shown no sign of improvement.”

The index comprises 10 components, which include average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance.

Separately, the US Department of Labor today reported the seasonally adjusted four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 244,750 last week, up 1,500 from the previous week’s upwardly revised average.

The previous week’s average was revised up by 250.

The four-week moving average decreases the volatility of the weekly numbers. Total initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 17 rose to 241,000, up 3,000 from the previous week’s level, which was also revised upwards by 250.

No special factors affected this week’s initial claims.

Reuters reports new applications for US jobless benefits remains at levels consistent with a tight labor market and many economists consider the labor market to be at or near full employment. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless claims rising to 240,000 in the latest week.