US GDP will likely decelerate to about 2% by the end of 2019, The Conference Board forecasts in its US Leading Economic Index, released today. The index has now been flat essentially since October 2018.

“Based on preliminary data, the US [Leading Economic Index] declined very slightly in January and December’s decline was revised up to no change,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of economic research at The Conference Board. “In January, the strengths in the financial components were offset by the weaknesses in the labor market components.”

January’s index reading edged down 0.1% to 111.3 (2016 = 100). That follows no change in December, and a 0.1% increase in November.

Data for three of the index’s components — manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft; and building permits — were not available for several of the recent months due to the recent government shutdown. As a result, The Conference Board forecasted some series in order to publish a preliminary Leading Economic Index. The Conference Board also postponed its annual benchmark revision of the composite indicators until all underlying data are available.