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US leading index edges up, pointing to strong growth in first half of year

January 25, 2018

The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index edged up 0.6% in December to a reading of 107.0 (2016 = 100), following increases of 0.5% in November and 1.3% in October.

“The US [Leading Economic Index] continued rising rapidly in December, pointing to a continuation of strong economic growth in the first half of 2018. The passing of the tax plan is likely to provide even more tailwind to the current expansion,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “The gains among the leading indicators have been widespread, with most of the strength concentrated in new orders in manufacturing, consumers’ outlook on the economy, improving stock markets and financial conditions.”

December’s index reading incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up to date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes was changed to 2016 = 100 from 2010 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes.