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US leading index edges down, jobless claims fall to 44-year low

October 19, 2017

The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index edged down 0.2% in September to a reading of 128.6 (2010 = 100), following increases of 0.4% in August and 0.3% in July. Despite September’s decline, the trend in the US LEI remains consistent with continuing solid growth in the US economy for the second half of the year.

“The US LEI declined slightly in September for the first time in the last twelve months, partly a result of the temporary impact of the recent hurricanes,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “The source of weakness was concentrated in labor markets and residential construction, while the majority of the LEI components continued to contribute positively.”

The index comprises 10 components, including the average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance.

Separately, the US Department of Labor today reported the US four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 248.250 last week, down 9,500 from the previous week’s average, according to seasonally adjusted numbers. The previous week’s average was revised upward by 250.

The four-week moving average decreases the volatility of the weekly numbers. Total initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended Oct. 14 fell to 222,000, down 22,000 from the previous week’s level and the lowest level for initial claims since March 31, 1973, when it was 222,000. The previous week’s level which was revised upward by 1,000.

However, the department reported claims-taking procedures continue to be severely disrupted in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as a result of power outages and infrastructure damage caused by Hurricanes Irma and Maria.

MarketWatch reports new claims for benefits have fallen sharply after a spike last month tied to hurricanes Harvey and Irma, whose disruptions temporarily put many people out of work. Claims are now essentially back to normal in Texas and Florida. Claims fell well below its forecast of 244,000.