The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the United States fell for the sixth month in September, reinforcing recession concerns.

The index fell by 0.4% in September to a level of 115.9 (2016=100). The LEI is down 2.8% over the six months between March and September, showing a reversal from its 1.4% growth over the previous six months.

“The US LEI fell again in September, and its persistent downward trajectory in recent months suggests a recession is increasingly likely before year-end,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director, economics, at The Conference Board. “The six-month growth rate of the LEI fell deeper into negative territory in September, and weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread.”

“Amid high inflation, slowing labor markets, rising interest rates, and tighter credit conditions, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.5% year over year in 2022 before slowing further in the first half of next year,” Ozyildirim said.