The outlook for the US economy this year is brighter than first thought. A new report by the National Association for Business Economics upgraded expectations for 2024.

Real gross domestic product for the US is now forecast to growth 2.2%, according to the median projection in the February 2024 NABE Outlook report released today. That is up from 1.3% in a similar report released in December 2023.

“The NABE Outlook Survey panelists sharply revised upwards their projections for US economic growth in 2024,” Ellen Zentner, NABE president and chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, said in a press release. “The stronger February growth forecasts for 2024 result from upward revisions to key sectors of the economy, including personal consumption expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”

Panelists surveyed for the new report also upgraded their forecast of job growth in 2024. They predict average monthly gains of 129,000 this year, up from the forecast of 55,000 in NABE’s December report. However, panelists also predicted the monthly gains will taper off to an average of 100,000 in the third and fourth quarters.

In addition, the median forecast calls for a 3.9% average annual employment rate for this year. That rate is lower than the 4.2% rate projected in the December survey.

“Most panelists expect the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee to commence rate cuts in the second quarter of 2024,” Mervin Jebaraj, NABE Outlook Survey chair and director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas, said in a press release.

“NABE panelists also forecast stronger economic growth, lower inflation and lower unemployment rates than the Fed’s December economic projections, and more than three-quarters of the panelists forecast that the US economy is heading for a soft landing in 2024,” Jebaraj said.

NABE is a professional organization for those who use economics in their work. The organization’s NABE Outlook report is based on a survey of 41 professional forecasters and took place between Feb. 5 and Feb. 13.