Despite the now rapidly cooling housing market, sinking stock market and nearly 40-year-high inflation, Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi believes the US wasn’t in a recession in the first half of this year and can still avoid the worst of economic outcomes altogether. However, Fortune reports that the economist has also admitted that the chances of a recession are “high” and “rising,” and the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have disrupted the entire global economy, making forecasting business cycles a challenge.