The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US fell by 0.5% in November to a reading of 103.0 (2016=100), following a downwardly revised reading of 1.0% in October. The index suggests a downshift of economic activity ahead with a “short and shallow” recession in the first half of next year, according to the organization.

“The US Leading Economic Index continued declining in November, with stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution to the index in the month,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a press statement. “Housing and labor market indicators weakened in November, reflecting warning areas for the economy.”

The LEI has now contracted 3.5% over the six months between May and November, a smaller decrease from its 4.3% contraction over the previous six months between November 2022 and May 2023.

Zabinska-La Monica noted that despite the economy’s ongoing resilience and December’s improvement in consumer confidence, the index suggests a downshift of economic activity ahead.

“As a result, The Conference Board forecasts a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024,” Zabinska-La Monica said.

Meanwhile, the annual growth rate of the index remains negative and has hovered around −8% since the first quarter of this year, according to The Conference Board.