The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US declined by 0.1% in December 2023 to a reading of 103.1 (2016=100). The decline follows a decline of 0.5% in November. The organization continues to see risk of recession ahead.

“The US Leading Economic Index fell slightly in December, continuing to signal underlying weakness in the US economy,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a press statement. 

“Despite the overall decline, six out of 10 leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December,” Zabinska-La Monica said. “Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest rate environment and low consumer confidence.”

The LEI contracted 2.9% over the six months between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3% contraction over the previous six months.

“As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead,” Zabinska-La Monica said.

Meanwhile, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth to turn negative in the second and third quarters but begin to recover later in the year.