The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US rose in February for the first time since February 2022. The index increased by 0.1% to a reading of 102.8 (2016=100), following a 0.4% decline in January 2024.

“Strength in weekly hours worked in manufacturing, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index and residential construction drove the Leading Economic Index’s first monthly increase in two years,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a press statement.  “However, consumers’ expectations and the ISM Index of New Orders have yet to recover, and the six- and twelve-month growth rates of the LEI remain negative.”

Zabinska-La Monica noted that despite February’s increase, the index still suggests some headwinds to growth going forward.

The LEI contracted 2.6% over the six months between August 2023 and February 2024 — a smaller decrease from the 3.8% decline over the previous six months.

Meanwhile, The Conference Board expects annualized GDP growth to slow over the second and third quarters as rising consumer debt and elevated interest rates weigh on consumer spending.