The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US declined by 0.7% in September to a reading of 104.6 (2016=100). September’s decrease follows a decline of 0.5% in August.

“Although the six-month growth rate in the LEI is somewhat less negative, and the recession signal did not sound, it still signals risk of economic weakness ahead,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a press statement.

The LEI is down 3.4% over the six months between March and September 2023, an improvement from its 4.6% contraction over the previous six months from September 2022 to March 2023.

“So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation,” Zabinska-La Monica said. “Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.”