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New estimate of third-quarter GDP growth slightly lower, but still at fastest pace since 2015

December 21, 2017

US real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, according to the third estimate of GDP growth released today by the US Commerce Department. The new estimate is down slightly from the previous estimate that pegged growth at 3.3%; it reflects downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures, but the general picture of economic growth remains the same.

Reuters reported growth of 3.2% is still at the fastest rate since the first quarter of 2015.

In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1%.

Separately, The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index edged up 0.4% in November to a reading of 130.9 (2010 = 100), following increases of 1.2% in October and 0.1% in September.

“The US LEI rose again in November, suggesting that solid economic growth will continue into the first half of 2018,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “In recent months, unemployment insurance claims have returned to pre-hurricane levels. In addition, improving financial indicators, new orders in manufacturing and historically high consumer sentiment have propelled the US LEI even higher.”

Jobless claims

Meanwhile, the US four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 236,000 last week, up 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average, according to seasonally adjusted numbers released today by the US Department of Labor. The four-week moving average decreases the volatility of the weekly numbers. Total initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended Dec. 16 rose to 245,000, up 20,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level.