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NABE survey says US economy growth to pick up, employers to add jobs over next three months

January 30, 2018

The National Association for Business Economics’ January 2018 business conditions survey indicates additional job increases likely over the next three months, and its outlook for growth in the overall economy over the next four quarters surpasses the relatively positive assessments of the past few quarterly surveys.

NABE’s survey included 119 of its members — which include business economists and those who use economics in the workplace — and was conducted between Dec. 26, 2017 and Jan. 10, 2018.

“More respondents report that their firms are hiring — and having trouble filling positions — than in the October survey,” said NABE VP Kevin Swift, who is also chief economist at the American Chemistry Council.

The share of respondents reporting rising employment at their firms over the past three months rose to 27% from 25% in NABE’s last business conditions survey released in October. The net rising index increased by a net of 18, up from an index of 10 in October and slightly higher than the average of 17 in the previous four surveys.

Looking forward, the share of respondents who anticipate their firms will add workers in the next quarter rose to 35% in January from 26% in October, but the share expecting job reductions was unchanged at 8%. This results in a nine-point increase in the net rising index rising nine points — up to 27, the highest NRI reading since April 2015.

Survey results also suggest wage growth is picking up, and that further gains are likely over the next three months. Fifty-eight percent of respondents expect wages to rise over the next three months, up from 49% in the prior survey.