Only about a quarter of NABE members believe the US will be in a recession by the end of this year, according to the National Association for Business Economics’ new Economic Policy Survey released today. However, 22% expect a US recession in 2025 and 36% expect a recession in 2026 or later. However, comments from survey respondents suggest any recession would come from an external shock such as tariffs, geopolitical risks or other unknown shock.

“As for the most likely geopolitical risks, NABE respondents express the greatest concerns about the Middle East conflict driving up oil prices or disrupting supply chains, a stagnant Chinese economy and instability around US elections,” Ellen Zentner, NABE president and chief US economist and managing director at Morgan Stanley, said in a press release.

In addition, a majority of respondents indicated that inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index will remain elevated. More than half of respondents, 52%, believe it is likely that the CPI inflation rate will be above 2.5% through the end of this year.

“Panelists are more optimistic about the outlook for the domestic economy,” NABE Policy Survey Chair Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in a press release. “But they have increasing concerns on the balance of risks around monetary policy that is ‘too restrictive’ versus a fiscal policy that is ‘too stimulative.’”

Another question involved US immigration policy. It found that two-thirds of respondents suggest that the US should increase the number of immigrants legally admitted into the country, 20% feel the volume should remain the same and 9% said it should be reduced.

The survey included responses from 184 NABE members.