Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economists upgraded their growth estimates for this year’s US gross domestic product, but they still expect growth to slow to 1.0% in 2024.

The median forecast for real GDP growth this year is now expected to be 2.6%, up from the 2.0% forecast in the October survey; for 2024, the median forecast for real GDP growth edged downward to 1.0% from 1.1%.

Survey respondents also expect job growth to slow, although opinions differ on how much.

Another finding: Fewer respondents to the current survey foresee a recession in the next 12 months compared to the October survey, with more than three in four assigning a probability of 50% or less, according to NABE President Ellen Zentner, chief US economist, Morgan Stanley. And while most respondents expect an uptick in the unemployment rate going forward, 79% anticipate that the rate will not exceed 5%.

“Too much monetary policy tightness and broadening conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are cited as the largest downside risks for the US economy,” Zentner said.

In terms of growth in nonfarm employment, the median forecast among NABE respondents predicted the fourth quarter of this year would see an average of 142,000 jobs added per month, up significantly from the 83,000 per month predicted in the October survey and 5,000 per month forecast in May. Additionally, the median forecast for the first quarter of next year calls for the US to add 60,000 jobs per month, up from the previous forecast of 25,000, while the forecast for the second quarter of 2024 increased by 5,000 to 35,000 jobs per month. However, the forecast for the third quarter was downgraded to 40,000 jobs per month from 85,000 in the October survey, and the median projection for the fourth quarter of 2024 now calls for the US to add 85,000 jobs per month, down from the October forecast of 115,000.

The survey included responses from 40 professional forecasters and took place between Nov. 10 and Nov. 19.