Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics maintained their growth projections for the US economy in 2017, the association announced today. The median forecast calls real GDP growth of 2.2% this year, unchanged from the September 2017 estimate. However, the economists slightly increased the median forecast for real GDP growth in 2018 to 2.5%, up from 2.4% in the September estimate.

Real GDP grew 1.6% in 2016.

“Results from the NABE December 2017 Outlook Survey show that panelists’ expectations are only slightly revised from those in the September 2017 Outlook Survey,” said NABE VP Kevin Swift, chief economist at American Chemistry Council.

Panelists now forecast nonfarm payroll growth to average 167,000 jobs per month in 2017, down from 178,000 in the September survey and below the actual job gains of 187,000 per month in 2016. The panel’s forecast for 2018 continues to reflect a further slowdown in job creation — to 158,000 per month, down slightly from the 160,000 projection in the September survey.

Despite the slower job growth projection, the unemployment rate is expected to average 4.4% this year, unchanged from the September forecast. The forecast for 2018 reflects further improvement to 4.1%, revised from the 4.2% rate projected in the prior survey. The economists expect the unemployment rate to average 4.1% in the first half of 2018 and 4.0% through the second half of next year.

Expectations for hourly compensation growth in 2017 are weaker than those projected in the September survey at 2.0%, compared to 2.3% in the previous survey. However, the panel expects hourly compensation growth to accelerate to 3.0% in 2018 and foresees wage growth outpacing inflation in both years.

NABE is a professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. The survey included 51 forecasters and was conducted between Nov. 6 and Nov. 15, 2017.