Forecasters expect 0.3% US GDP growth this year, and more than half, 58%, say there is a 50% probability of a recession this year, according to the “February 2023 Outlook” report released today by the National Association for Business Economics.

“Results of the February 2023 NABE Outlook survey continue to reflect significant divergence regarding the outlook for the US economy,” said NABE President Julia Coronado, president and founder, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “Estimates of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product or real GDP, inflation, labor market indicators and interest rates are all widely diffused, likely reflecting a variety of opinions on the fate of the economy — ranging from recession to soft landing to robust growth.”

The median projection for real GDP growth is 0.3% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023 and 1.9% quarter over quarter in 2024. The estimates between the lowest five responses and the highest five responses for 2023 range from -1.3% to 1.9% in 2023 and from 0.1% to 2.6% in 2024.

The report also found that 58% of forecasters continue to believe that the likelihood of recession occurring over the next 12 months is greater than 50%. Whereas 52% of respondents in the December survey expected a recession to begin in the first quarter of 2023, 28% hold the same view in the February survey.

The forecast for the US nonfarm employment growth was revised upward from those in the December 2022 survey. The median projection for monthly payroll growth in 2023 is 102,000, 34% higher than the 76,000 jobs forecasted in December 2022 survey. After projecting a monthly average of 256,000 for the first quarter, the panel calls for slower job growth every quarter of 2023. Meanwhile, the five lowest estimates forecast a further decline in the unemployment rate to 3.3% by the fourth quarter of 2023, and the five highest forecasts anticipate unemployment to rise to 5.7% by then.

In addition, the report calls for the US unemployment rate to rise over the next four quarters, from 3.5% in the first quarter of 2023 to 4.4% in the first quarter of 2024, and then to average 4.3% in 2024 as a whole.

Forecasters expect elevated wage growth in 2023, with compensation per hour rising 4.0% in 2023 — lower than the 4.4% in 2022.

NABE’s survey included 48 professional forecasters and took place from Feb. 3 to Feb. 10, 2023.