Three areas in British Columbia are expected to be among Canada’s fastest-growing, according to The Conference Board of Canada’s “Metropolitan Outlook: Winter 2018” report.

Two of the areas, Vancouver and Abbotsford-Mission, are forecast to be the fastest-growing census metropolitan areas in Canada this year, according to the report. The organization also noted strong growth in the economy of Victoria.

In Vancouver, real GDP growth is forecast to ease to 2.7% in 2018, but the metropolitan area will remain Canada’s fastest-growing. A cooling housing market, due to rising interest rates and the expansion of a mortgage stress test, is central to the organization’s expectation of the slowdown. This will shave growth in construction and in finance, insurance, and real estate. Employment growth is also expected to slow to 0.9%, in step with the more moderate GDP gains.

Abbotsford-Mission’s real GDP growth is forecast to improve to 2.5% in 2018 from 1.9% last year. Abbotsford–Mission’s goods-producing sector will lead the way over the next two years, thanks to growing business opportunities, a lower Canadian dollar and a solid US economy. Manufacturing activity is expected to remain healthy, especially in the key wood products industry. Although the US has levied duties on exports of Canadian softwood lumber, value-added softwood lumber products, such as those produced locally, are not subject to these new duties. The outlook for the construction sector is also bright, with housing starts and nonresidential investment both poised to be strong. However, slower services sector output growth is on tap, particularly in wholesale and retail trade, as shoppers tighten their purse strings in the face of rising interest rates.

Victoria’s real GDP is forecast to rise a solid 2.2% this year, although this pace will be the slowest in four years. Sustained gains in most industries will underpin this ongoing growth. Robust housing starts drive solid construction output growth over the next two years, while federal shipbuilding contracts issued to Seaspan’s Victoria Shipyards will keep the manufacturing sector expanding. On the services side, slow but steady gains are anticipated in the public administration sector, in line with a healthy provincial government fiscal outlook. At the same time, Victoria’s burgeoning high-tech sector will help drive solid output gains in the professional, scientific and technical services industry.