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Leading Economic Index rises, weak Q1 growth may have been ‘hiccup’

May 18, 2017

The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index rose 0.3% in April to a level of 126.9 (2010 = 100), pointing to the possibility that the first quarter’s week GDP growth was likely temporary.

“The recent trend in the US [Leading Economic Index], led by the positive outlook of consumers and financial markets, continues to point to a growing economy, perhaps even a cyclical pickup,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “First quarter’s weak GDP growth is likely a temporary hiccup as the economy returns to its long-term trend of about 2%.”

Separately, the US Department of Labor reported the four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment fell by 2,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 243,500.

Total claims, not the average, also fell 4,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 236,000.

This was the third straight week of declines, Bloomberg reports.