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Jobless claims average rises; US leading index points to moderate growth

May 19, 2016

In economic news released today, the US Department of Labor’s jobless claims numbers suggest a fairly solid labor market, and The Conference Board’s US leading economic index points to moderate growth in 2016.

The US four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 275,750 last week, up 7,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average, according to seasonally adjusted numbers released today by the US Department of Labor.

The four-week moving average decreases the volatility of the weekly numbers. Total initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 14 were 278,000, down 16,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level, which marked a one-year high.

This marks 63 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973.

No special factors affected this week’s initial claims.

Bloomberg reports the decrease was primarily due to fewer filings in New York after a surge the previous week that probably reflected difficulties adjusting for the spring break holiday. A subdued rate of dismissals, along with steady hiring, shows companies have confidence in the demand outlook, according to Bloomberg. Still, initial claims fell less than the median forecast in its survey of economists, which called for initial claims to decline to 275,000.

The Conference Board’s US leading economic index rose in April, suggesting moderate growth in 2016. The index rose 0.6% in April to a reading of 123.9 (2010 = 100), following no change in March, and a 0.1 percent increase in February.

“The US [leading economic index] picked up sharply in April, with all components except consumer expectations contributing to the rebound from an essentially flat first quarter,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “Despite a slow start in 2016, labor market and financial indicators, and housing permits all point to a moderate growth trend continuing in 2016.”