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Jobless claims average falls, initial claims near 50-year low

July 19, 2018

The US four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 220,500 last week, down 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average, the US Department of Labor reported today. The previous week’s average was revised upward by 250.

The four-week moving average decreases the volatility of the weekly numbers. Total initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 14 to 207,000, down 8,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since Dec. 6, 1969, when it was 202,000.

Reuters reported economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 220,000 in the latest week. The second straight weekly decline in claims likely reflects difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations around this time of the year when motor vehicle manufacturers shut assembly lines for annual retooling. With manufacturers undertaking the retooling exercise at different times in July, this can throw off the model that the government uses to smooth the claims data for seasonal variations.