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Jobless claims average falls; US leading index suggests moderate growth

September 22, 2016

In economic news released today, the US Department of Labor’s jobless claims numbers suggest a fairly healthy labor market, and The Conference Board’s US leading economic index points to moderate growth in 2016.

The US four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 58,500 last week, down 2,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average, according to seasonally adjusted numbers released today by the US Department of Labor.

The four-week moving average decreases the volatility of the weekly numbers. Total initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended Sept. 17 were 252,000, down 8,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level.

This marks 81 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.

No special factors affected this week’s initial claims.

Bloomberg reports filings for US unemployment benefits dropped last week to match the lowest level since April, a sign the labor market remains healthy even as hiring moderates. It was the largest drop since early July. Applications for unemployment insurance are close to a four-decade low as companies focus more on filling available positions than on trimming staff. according to Bloomberg. Initial claims fell more than the median forecast in its survey of economists, which called for initial claims to decline to 261,000.

The Conference Board’s US LEI edged down in August but still suggests moderate growth in the months ahead. The index fell 0.2% in August to a reading of 124.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5% increase in July and a 0.2% increase in June.

“While the U.S. LEI declined in August, its trend still points to moderate economic growth in the months ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “Although strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators are roughly balanced, positive contributions from the financial indicators were more than offset by weakening of nonfinancial indicators, such as leading indicators of labor markets, suggesting some risks to growth persist.”