Job gains will continue for now, but the labor market shows clear signs of cooling, according to The Conference Board Employment Trends Index released today.  

“Looking ahead, we project that job growth will continue slowing and forecast job losses will start in the second quarter of 2024, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% by the second half of 2024,” Selcuk Eren, senior economist at The Conference Board, said in a press release.

The index decreased to a reading of 113.05 in November from 113.09 in October, continuing its decline from its peak in March 2022. However, the index still remains elevated at this time compared to its pre-pandemic level.

“Over the last six months, payroll employment growth was almost entirely driven by healthcare and social assistance, leisure and hospitality and government,” Eren said. “Employment growth in these industries is less likely to be impacted by a recession, given acute labor shortages. Job growth in other industries has been flat or negative. Elsewhere, we see clear signs of cooling with several component indicators of the [Employment Trends Index] pointing to loosening labor demand.”

For example, temporary help services jobs resumed their decline in November after reaching a peak in March 2022. Temporary help services is often an early indicator for hiring in other industries.

In addition, initial claims for unemployment insurance increased for a second consecutive month in November, though they remain historically low.

Also, the share of respondents in The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey reporting difficulty in finding jobs reached its highest level since March 2021.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators into an index. Those indicators are:

• The percentage of respondents who say they find “jobs hard to get” in The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey.
• Initial claims for unemployment insurance data from the US Department of Labor.
• Data on the percentage of firms with positions not able to fill right now from the National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation.
• Data on the number of employees hired by the temporary help industry from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers data from the BLS.
• Job openings data from the BLS.
• Industrial production data from the Federal Reserve Board.
• Real manufacturing and trade sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.