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Inflation can be tamed without ‘significant downturn,’ but jobless rate will rise: Boston Fed CEO

September 26, 2022

Fighting inflation will take slower employment growth and a higher unemployment rate, but a significant economic downturn can be avoided, said Susan Collins, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, during a speech today at the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce.

It was the first public speech for Collins as CEO — she is also the first Black woman to lead one of the Federal Reserve Banks.

Her comments come after the Fed raised benchmark interest rates last week by another three-quarters of a percentage point and indicated it will continue increasing them in its fight against inflation and for a return to price stability.

Historically, price stability has been a precondition of maximum employment over the medium and long term, but returning to the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation could take some pain, Collins said.

“I do anticipate that accomplishing price stability will require slower employment growth and a somewhat higher unemployment rate,” she said. “And I take very seriously that unemployment is painful and that its costs have been disproportionately concentrated among groups that have traditionally been marginalized.”

Still, a significant economic downturn can be avoided, Collins said.

“There are reasons to be somewhat more optimistic about the ability to achieve the necessary slowing of demand without leading to a significant downturn this time around,” she said. “Household and business balance sheets are considerably stronger than in previous tightening cycles, reducing the risk of a significant retrenchment in spending and investment as interest rates rise.”

Labor market conditions also differ from past cycles, Collins said. Firms seem to have too few workers, not too many, suggesting that this time a slowdown in activity may have a smaller impact on employment.

She also cautioned that it will be more difficult to bring inflation down if it becomes entrenched.