Are companies facing a labor shortage? More than half, 51%, say that in the last three months they did not, according to a survey by the National Association of Business Economics, a professional association in the US for those who use economics in their work.

Of those that were, 11% said the shortage has started to abate, while 4% expected it to abate in the first half of this year. And 14% expect it to abate in the second half of this year or later. However, 21% said they didn’t know or the question wasn’t applicable.

The companies most likely to say they aren’t experiencing a labor shortage were those in finance, insurance and real estate, with 69% saying they aren’t facing a labor shortage. It was followed by services firms, with 54% saying they aren’t experiencing a shortage.

On the other hand, only 33% of goods-producing firms said they were in a labor shortage. It was 33% as well for firms in transportation, utilities, information and communication.

Whether companies are experiencing a labor shortage was a special question in NABE’s Business Conditions Survey, released today. The survey is based on responses from 57 NABE panelists.

Another finding in the report was that 16% of firms expect employment at their operations to go up in the next three months, with only 11% saying employment at their companies will fall, resulting in a net increase of 5%.

More respondents also believed there is less of a chance the US will go into a recession in the next 12 months. In the latest survey, 91% of respondents put the odds of the US going into a recession at a probability of 50%. That’s down from the October 2023 version of the survey, where the 50% probability was forecast by 79% of respondents.