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Global CEO confidence edges down, but overall sentiment still positive: The Conference Board

July 06, 2018

Global CEO confidence edged down in the second quarter, according to The Conference Board. Its measure of CEO confidence decreased to a level of 63, from 65 in the first quarter.

A reading of more than 50 reflects more positive responses than negative ones.

“CEO Confidence declined slightly in Q2, but overall sentiment remains positive,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “CEOs’ optimism regarding the growth prospects for both mature and emerging economies have eased considerably since the beginning of the year. However, most CEOs expect profits will increase over the coming year, with market/demand growth and cost reductions the major driving forces.”

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions was about the same as in the first quarter of 2018, with 74% reporting conditions are better compared to six months ago. CEO sentiment was also virtually unchanged regarding the assessment of current conditions in their own industries, with about 51% reporting conditions are better than six months ago.

Looking ahead, however, CEOs’ expectations regarding the economic outlook are much less optimistic than last quarter. Now, just 48% expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 63% in the second quarter.

CEOs’ assessment of current conditions in the US retreated slightly, but overall remains positive. Sentiment regarding Europe and Brazil declined sharply, with confidence regarding current conditions in Europe going from positive to neutral. In Brazil, sentiment went from positive to negative. Sentiment regarding India declined, although to a lesser extent, and remains cautiously positive. CEOs’ assessment of China and Japan remained about the same as in the first quarter.

Looking forward, CEOs are the most optimistic about short-term prospects for the US, though less so than in the first quarter of this year. Expectations for Europe declined from positive to neutral, while expectations regarding China, Japan and India are neutral to slightly positive. Expectations for Brazil, however, have turned slightly negative.